Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.694806 3.695864 5.126376 7.396110 1.105977e+01 1.703977e+01 28.246418
2025-03-30 1.742432 2.748061 4.483398 7.954946 1.548792e+01 3.343893e+01 90.353895
2025-04-06 1.121789 1.952405 3.598357 7.555186 1.867912e+01 5.740183e+01 293.230589
2025-04-13 0.745123 1.396767 2.834601 6.858274 2.114830e+01 9.475974e+01 1183.779555
2025-04-20 0.562831 1.136949 2.552993 7.235668 2.926717e+01 2.272932e+02 22616.578445
2025-04-27 0.455613 0.990192 2.465403 8.301613 4.675240e+01 8.537270e+02 NaN
2025-05-04 0.378910 0.880715 2.420822 9.724450 8.052887e+01 6.136795e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 0.309193 0.757224 2.254236 10.534650 1.272408e+02 1.096783e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 0.244300 0.618959 1.943350 10.095773 1.638738e+02 1.562494e+07 NaN
2025-05-25 0.192445 0.499111 1.626632 9.124019 1.870514e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.164863 0.443772 1.536482 9.805372 3.111092e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.142405 0.396148 1.448811 10.446863 5.335161e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.124685 0.359772 1.400266 11.676923 1.168285e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.109348 0.325821 1.341109 12.828773 2.809784e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.092548 0.280326 1.187850 12.233345 4.444279e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.077886 0.238222 1.027138 11.066108 5.692915e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.069509 0.217715 0.979884 11.835662 1.765827e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.064047 0.206823 0.984620 13.906368 1.913974e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.059568 0.198346 1.000245 16.732136 1.906615e+08 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.054351 0.184868 0.971020 18.415249 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.048183 0.165258 0.882094 17.603888 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.042293 0.145337 0.778676 15.727766 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.039097 0.136726 0.758016 17.119053 NaN NaN NaN